The Urban Land Institute (ULI) has just
about confirmed it in their recent report What’s
Next? Real Estate in the New Economy, our
unsustainable lifestyle of college graduates getting good jobs and a
place of their own, then a starter house while the parents downsize
and the grand-parents move to someplace warm to grow old together. It
was nice while it lasted but, as evidenced by some long history, it
was an aberration and not a realistic scenario.
We have had a hint of its failure over
the last decade or so. Fewer folks are making the great salaries and
bonus packages than used to and the retirements funded by 401(k)s or
Social Security have taken major hits with this latest recession (and
even before). Housing prices and the foreclosures debacle have left
many without equity or nest egg from which to rise again. Things are
NOT going to change over the next decade, even if we come out of this
recession, so what are you going to do about it?
“To save money, more of us must
either live in larger households or in smaller units.” says the
ULI. I can tell you that Mrs Sweeper has been saying that for
several years now. That does mean living in mufti-generational
houses with the parents living in one area and the grand-parents
living in another while the working family has the main space. To
many people today, this sounds more like Communist Europe than the
late 19th century standard for most of the world.
The current rate of home ownership is
way higher than historically shown to be sustainable and must come
down. At the same time the rental market, both smaller units and the
larger complexes will see a rejuvenation and may see huge rate hikes
for the better maintained ones. The ULI report calls for an expected
300,00 units annually to be built nationwide and I hope that most of
them are designed to fit neighborhoods better that he standard
complex of today.
I don't see why the apartment houses of
the early 20th century could blend in so well, yet the
ones designed after the zoning codes were refined could not. The
apartments of Ashland Park or Chevy Chase do not detract from the
neighborhood but the units along Alexandria or Cambridge Drs. Seem so
out of place. The larger suburban developments just about scream
that their residents are just temporary. They might as well be
student housing.
One trend that we have seen lately,
especially in the newer off campus student housing around UK, is the
three and four bedroom apartments with a central entertainment room
with kitchen and separate bed/bath suites for the roommates. Gone
are the days of shared bathrooms down the hall like in the dorms.
Living off campus is more like living at home and for some it is much
better. Perhaps this style of apartment living could work for urban
families, if we could get past the notion that all children need a
yard to play in. What is really needed is the pedestrian access to
restaurants, cafes, and parks or recreation centers which adds real
value.
The decline of “McMansionized”
housing is well documented but they may not be gone for long. They
may follow the path of the old style Victorians built in the late19th
century and be the typical housing of the multi-generational family
culture on the horizon. For a number of our recent immigrants the
situation already exists.
One scenario which exists is that with
tightening lending standards, (putting down some equity and
exhibiting a sound credit history) the rental market re-emerges to
meet the multifamily demand. The vacancies will fall and the rents
will rise and the institutional investor will re-enter the game. To
keep these units affordable, many will need to be located around nsit
stops and walkable commercial developments. Massive parking lots
around these apartments will not exist.
Our older citizens will increasingly
find that, as their financial situations continue to fluctuate their
ability to be part of that “gray wave” of seniors relaxing on the
beach or cruising the Caribbean is ebbing away. Many more will be
aging in place right here in Lexington.
I, along with many others do not care
for the idea of living in a “retirement community” and wish to
remain a part of the whole community. As such, many of the housing
units will have to be age friendly and include the ability of
community social services to be provided. This may be done in
condominium or apartment style although single family/duplex arrangements may work.
Now is the time for Lexington to look
at how and where we will begin to take on these challenges. We can
little afford to believe that keeping the long-time “stable”
neighborhoods as exempt from change. All neighborhoods are changing.
It is just a question of rate of change. In a matter of years,
conditions may change which could swing any neighborhood in any
number of directions. Plans should be in place to deal with such
changes.