Nearly every major car maker
in America and several large technology firms are racing to develop
vehicles that can operate with limited-to-no human interaction.
Driver-less cars are on the horizon. Some say within 20 years.
If that is the case, then the
auto industry will take a dramatic turn from selling to the
individual to selling to transportation service providers. As young
professionals across the Western world are discovering, it is
extremely more convenient to summon a form of transportation than to
concern ones self about where and how to store or maintain an
expensive automobile. To Millenials, the automobile is not the
freedom device it was to their parents and much more costly than
their current freedom device, their smart phone/tablet.
With that in mind, I would
like to know just how cities like Lexington are beginning to plan for
streets full of such driverless autos.
Downtown
I can see one scenario where
more and more commuters choose to use an automated form of transit
(not the flying cars from the science fiction movies of the '50s)
like a driverless car to carry them downtown in the morning and make
a return pick up in the evening. They need not bother about a
designated parking spot nor the questionable safety of the trek to
the garage. How would this affect the look and feel of downtown
Lexington?
Many of the comments I have
received on this blog have dealt with the need for downtown residents
to have their personal, and private, parking. The primary reasons
stated are the need for a car to leave downtown for the weekly
shopping trip or other amenities not currently found downtown. I
feel that the age range for these folks will fall squarely in the
Baby Boomer set, still enamored with the freedom of a set of wheels.
Too many times I have read the
projections of planners who looked at past trends and fell short of
the impact of a cultural or social shift, or the media pundits who
forecast rosy urban developments which falter due to local/global
economic situations. They are fun to read when they do both with
different aspects of several connected elements of society.
I do not think that it is too
soon to begin monitoring the possible shifts in parking demand in he
suburbs. Reports from this past Black Friday shopping frenzy lead
one to believe that the parking fields of many malls and commercial
centers fell far from crowded. The use of land-use related parking
minimums are being rethought by more communities than Lexington.
Those same parking shifts
could tell an even better story for downtown. Without the need for
one to store an automobile for up to 8 hours a day, how many of our
current surface parking lots would pay for themselves in daily
revenue? How many more of these lots can, and should, be put to
better use?
From my memory and experience,
the local community has not planned for potential uses of demolished
buildings, citing the lack of jurisdiction due to it being “private
property” yet requiring permission to erect anything in its place.
History has shown us that the “stop gap” measure of allowing a
temporary parking lot is anything but – temporary.
Suburbs
In the suburbs, life without an auto will present many new
challenges. These same people who find commuting to work easier may
also wish to use a different sized driverless vehicle to take the
family to the park, pool or the movies. Weekly shopping trips may
also be accomplished with similar ease. What should not be
necessary, in the long run, is the large ocean of parking around even
the simplest of shopping developments.
Is someone now looking at what alternative configurations may be
possible for the existing commercial areas? The current B-6P zoning
classification is considered a “Planned Shopping Center” zone,
with its own set of minimum parking requirements. Widespread use of
driverless vehicles, increased online shopping (with drone delivery)
or even major enhancements to the existing mass transit system can
render those requirements obsolete in just a few years. A forward
looking community should have a concept of what an alternative could
look like.
Staging Areas
At
the point that driverless cars become as prevalent as as anticipated
above, the sheer number of such vehicles would mean a systematic and
strategic set of maintenance and staging facilities. Today's family
car gets a somewhat limited amount of daily use, roughly 1-3 hours
out of 24. A fleet of driverless vehicles could go from one
assignment to another almost 24/7, much like the fire and emergency
fleet does currently. They will need the typical refueling and
maintenance but at a higher frequency interval.
Does
this bode well for the once ubiquitous service stations, now
convenience stores? Which zone would be best for such a facility?
Following in the footsteps of VHS vs Beta, Apple vs Microsoft and
Uber vs Lyft, will there be competing versions of driverless systems
out there?
Auto
dealers
Then
there is the whole question of dealing with the usually unsavory task
of shopping for a car. Will it be a new car or a used car, will you
go for all of the bells and whistles as add-ons, 2-door or four,and
will you take the luxury car path? All of these questions may become
moot save for the hold outs of the 1% who already have drivers
employed. An interesting story from the Tech Insider on the shift in
car ownership may be found here.
It
may not be right around the corner and it may take a while to fully
get here, but the whole concept of planning is to look to the future
and its possibilities. From what I read, of the 50 largest US cities
only 6% of cities’
transportation plans consider the potential effect of driverless
technology. Their land-use plans are probably also lagging as far
behind as well.
I, and many other Baby
Boomers, may not ever buy one or even use one very often but the say
that they are coming. Our technology developers are planning for and
I don't think that our urban planners are.
I am open for any comments.
